ottawa foodies

A few friends of mine in the hospitality industry have been complaining of huge declines in sales across the board in the last year or so. They cite many reasons fron a patio smoking ban to government job cuts but I was wondering if Foodies were going out less and why?

We are state side at the moment but before we left we had scaled back our eating out substantially. Hate to say it and I know I'm gong to get flack for my comment but the majority of the food just is not worth going out and paying the inflated prices for. When burgers drinks and sides for two are up over $50 with tip time to fry up my own. Not to mention any decent pizza in town will run a table for two over $60.

I wonder if others in the industry have noticed recent declines.

If they are happening, I think it maybe do to a number of causes.

Here is a theory on one of those causes.

I've been watching the the new openings here at Ottawa Foodies:

for 2013 Forum - New Openings 2013

and 2014 Forum - New Openings 2014

and I see all the new restaurants in Hintonburg, Westboro, Preston St., Big Box Restaurants etc.

Also I've seen a rise in other foodie events/markets. Beer tastings, pop up this or that, food trucks etc. Increase in foodie stores ... cupcake/bakeries, craft beer producers, speciality shops (e.g. olive oil) and prepared food type places (e.g.Piggy Market) etc. etc.

I speculate, even with an increase in foodie interest and spending, that supply is starting to outstrip demand. A speculation if there are truly "... huge declines in sales across the board in the last year or so."

Regardless, unless there is a significant change in Foodie dollars (through population increase or prosperity or people spending yet more on non-home cooked meals), the continued increase in supply will lead to over supply. .... Then we will see closures, unfortunately. So I hope I'm wrong.

In my household it's both what Ken and CC said. Everything is outside of our neighbourhood and what is here is way overpriced for what we get.

We're in Centrepointe and the choices are college-level junk or nasty chain pubs that disappoint. There are a few gems...but nothing new worth our pinched pennies.

Unfortunately you are going to see closures but when business is down you can point to a number of reasons..

There are pubs & Sports Bars that never recovered from the NHL Strike; 30,000 Federal employees either lost their jobs or are back on a limited contracts so the fear of losing your job certainly would make people spend less on Retail & entertainment. My observations is the weather has been the largest factor, we haven't had more than a couple of days in the minus 20 area in years but this year it's been weeks of bone chilling cold & if it's not cold we're in a blizzard..

Lets not forget gasoline prices are 30% higher than this time last year (yet oil is cheaper than it was in 2007) anybody who drives a car has less disposable income simply because they drive..

Along with the fact that our Municipal Gov't doesn't seem to want to entice new industry to our community. They depend far to much on the federal Gov't as our largest employer.

I agree to a small part about smoking bans on Patios & that isn't finished yet, next year they (Municipal Gov't) will introduce a new anti-smoking bylaw that prohibits people from smoking in public areas period including sidewalks. I really don't think anything done @ the municipal level is ever well thought out. I asked a friend of mine who's high in the administration of the City of Ottawa if the city council starts every council meeting with 'what can we do to screw small business in Ottawa today?'

The dust will settle, there will be less places & new ones will arise, the economy will rise & fall like always...

I agree 100% with Terry on his comments. I've been living in Ottawa for 25 years and have been through two downsizings in the federal government and the economy did bounce back. Alot of restos will close but some of them will survive the recession and will still be around when the economy picks up.

My own beef about the restos in Ottawa is twofold One of them being the cost of restaurant meals. Even though I have been living here for 25 years I find restaurants here are generally expensive - even the cheap places are pricey IMO. I visit Toronto and Montreal fairly regularly and even though you can get some pricey meals in both cities there are a few places that have really good meals which are easier on the wallet. My other beef is the food trends in this city - pubs were in fashion then they weren't, sushi places were popular then they weren't, burger places were popular then they weren't... Although I would love it if someone opened a ramen place in Ottawa-;)

Which part of 2007? Crude prices were way overheated just before the 2008 crash. At the first of 2007, oil prices were about $65 and by the end of 2007 they had skyrocketed to about $145. Today is about $110, and arguably about on the correct curve. The price boom in 2007 was abnormal (though also arguably they were finally starting to price in peak-oil, and that sentiment may return to the markets before we know it).

Peak oil is certainly not priced in at the moment.

www.infomine.com

Zym you could be right, maybe I'm reading these numbers wrong but other than a sharp drop after the crash, oil went back to around $120-$125 a barrel by 2011..

Today the price of a barrel of oil is around $100, not exceedingly high but our oil & gas prices shouldn't be as high as they are...

To another point I'd like to make about Toronto & Montreal, it's a simple answer

At 9:00PM in Toronto (Property Taxes are 25% lower in Toronto BTW) & Montreal they're gearing up for round 2, we're going to bed,
I love my city but we spend less, we dine less & everyone in Ottawa eats between 6 & 8 PM therefore our percentages are affected...

Terry

To the poster in Centrepointe - I hope you've been to Baan Thai. It's for sure a gem!

No, our oil and gas prices should not be as high as they are ... the should be a lot higher.

But wait for it ... peak oil will get priced in soon. And you'll be wishing for today's bargain basement prices.

The gov't downsizing has been going on for 2-3 years now.

Why are there still more and more new openings in the food and beverage industry ?

Here is some very rough math.

Yellow pages list about 2000 restaurants under their 'Restaurants Ottawa' category.

Leaving out Gatineau (with their restaurants)and using a population of 1 million, there is a restaurant for every 500 people. And that includes children

Can they all survive on an average of 500 customers ? Of course the 500 patronise a number of restaurants but .....

Please, someone from StatsCan help me out here. I know they are fuzzy numbers but something tells me that there is more supply than demand.

AD_2 I have, actually! One of those hidden gems I spoke of.

Zym, prices will go up regardless, I'm not getting into an environmental argument but we just can't turn oil off, millions of people depend on oil & until somebody comes up with a better more economic solution we're @ the mercy of Big Oil..

Captain, the largest public servant cuts came this past summer & it was noticeable immediately so you're right there is probably more supply than demand. Although I still think the largest factor in the decline of business this January has been the weather.

It's unfortunate but you'll see a few places closing all over town in the next few weeks...

Terry

I think sales are down Canada wide its not limited to Ottawa.

I agree, I'm sure Montreal has a hard time of it & I think it's more about weather...

As my wife and I become more food conscious-and more discriminating, we find that we are eating at home more often, not because of the cost, but because we like the food we make at home better than what we can get out. We're not super great cooks, but we have realized it's often more about the ingredients, and it's nice to have control over them. Places we used to go regularly, we don't go to nearly as often. I'll go sometimes to a place for lunch (cheaper than dinner at an upscale place), or if there's a special or something.

It's maybe telling that the last entry in the 'New Openings thread is almost 2 weeks old.

Interesting thread.

My theory on the new openings in 2013 was that Ottawa was weathering the economic storm a bit better than other places and there were foodie dollars to be had. that said, cuts and slowdown have and will take a toll.

I've always found Ottawa as a dining city curiously tolerant of mediocrity... places that wouldn't last three months in Mtl and elsewhere somehow carry on for years here.

I don't wish failure on anyone, but i won't be surprised if the Ottawa restau industry goes through a bit of thinning and harder competition for mouths/stomachs. To pick an obvious example, we don't need 30+ Pho restaurants, many more or less identical and 'decent'... when we could have ten awesome ones and ten others trying new/different things for our dollars.

Although there is no single cause of the slowdown, I think that Hungry Pete has raised an interesting one. The quality and diversity of ingredients that you can buy in stores has increased significantly over the last several years. Even the big chains like Loblaws and Costco sell ingredients that many a foodie is happy to use (not to mention the prepared meals you can get at such places if you are less discriminating). This makes it much easier to cook at home to a level more similar to that which you can find in the mid-range restaurants. And since many of those ingredients can get expensive, it cuts into the dining-out budget. Higher end places like Petit Bills and the Beckta family will survive because they offer a quality and selection that is hard for most of us to reproduce at home. And lower-end places and chains can survive because of cost and convenience. It is the mid-range, trendier type places that are IMHO in over supply right now and thus the most vulnerable.

There are some very good places in Ottawa that would thrive in Toronto or Montreal but there are many sub par ones.

I think we are dealing with a host of factors here, many of which people have pointed out above:

1) Times are tough. I really truly believe we are years from economic recovery (which I believe will actually end up being economic readjustment, rather that a return to any previous "normal"). Ottawa is insulated from the private sector side of this to some extent and word on the street is that we might see some Fed. spending in about 18mo-3 years. Until then, I think you will see rents/house prices slowing up, and some local businesses suffering due to slightly reduced consumer spending;

2) Price floor is high: I agree with aspects of the posts above saying that mediocrity costs a lot, and quality can (but not always) cost a lot more. There just seems to be such high costs in the mediocre end of things in Ottawa (i.e.: Corp Pubs/chains/bad but "trendy" joints) - where a pseudo-craft beer is 8+$ when a very good quality beer worth paying for is often around 6$ (elmdale/whalesbone/el camino/smoque shack come immediately to mind). I agree that prices in Mtl and TO are often way cheaper than what we see in Ottawa.

I either dine out only two ways as a result - casually and cheaply in good ethnic joints with friends (for typically less than $20-25 pp max), or expensively for more important occasions in a good resto with a date (min $150+). That's it, there is no in between - it's just not worth it. My friends and I often leave a place after a few rounds of drinks to go whip something up at a nearby friend's place because we know the food just won't be worth it where we are;

3) Knowledge is readily available and mostly costs nothing (other than personal effort): If you want to cook well at home, the knowledge is widely available in any number of forms (youtube, web, tv, books, other people, etc.) You can buy expensive meats or cheap vegetables and regardless produce incredible results (that are almost always healthier and often tastier) than what you can get from some auto-fry/boil-in-the-bag chain resto.

To illustrate this point, I was recently eating a friend's excellent risotto and we remarked how this dish is often so expensive (25+$) at restos. The ingredients themselves are unarguably cheap. It is the knowledge, time and effort of stirring rice for 25 minutes that makes 3$ worth of ingredients into a classic dish well worth that price tag. And with a little hustle and knowledge, anyone can make it at home. I'd call it "a pleasant side effect of the DIY/pinterest/etsy/instagram-everything" nature of contemporary culture; and

4) Winter is cold out there and a lot of people hibernate.

Places in Toronto and Montreal have the same issues the last year its been real hard.

I agree that prices, and value for price in Ottawa may be out of wack with other places, but so are basic grocery prices. I get really pissed when I go to TO and go into a grocery store, and find that things are 20-25% cheaper, and don't even talk about shopping stateside. As a result, if I have an eatery here in town. I'm probably paying more to my suppliers for food than in TO or MTL.

Terry - I was not talking the least little bit about environmental issues. I was talking about Peak Oil. That has nothing to do with environmental issues, it has everything to do with the fact that once half the oil is gone, the other half becomes increasingly expensive to extract.

Nobody argues about whether or not peak oil is true. It is a given fact.

The only thing they argue about is when is the peak (the halfway point). A great number of people believe we passed the peak in the early 2000s, and that's why the skyrocket started in 2007, only to be stopped by a massive global financial meltdown. Some believe it won't be til around 2050. Although not many people put it that late - 2020 seems to be the latest reasonable date. But one thing is for certain : it is coming. And within the lifetime of many or even most of the people who frequent this site.

I wasn't suggesting for a second that we should or could turn oil off. I was suggesting that oil is below its true market value. And when Peak hits, it will skyrocket manifold its current price.

And if Peak Oil hits before we find an alternative - then what? (now we tiptoe into environmental issues)

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

Thanks Zym, I understand what you're saying & I concur 100%..

As far as the slowdown, I still think it has more to do with weather than anything else...

Hungry Pete

While i do think you might pay more to suppliers then Toronto or Montreal but as for grocery stores stores the ones i have been its not 25-30% cheaper there on par with Ottawa stores.

I'm with Hungry Pete and Nosher on this one- we've been eating out less because I just can't stomach eating out at another so-so (at best) mid-range restaurant where I have to pay $8 or more for something so basic like fries. Often the service is not great, so I end up thinking to myself, gee, for this I could have bought us a ton of really great, high-end ingredients and cooked up a few feasts, with a couple bottles of decent wine thrown in. I just can't justify it these days unless 1) I'm pretty much guaranteed that it will be an excellent meal (I'm looking at you, Union 613) or 2) it is something I just wouldn't make at home.

I understand people not happy with what some do offer but this idea things are cheaper i Toronto or Montreal is not really true.

I'm getting a little off topic here, but . . . . . .
Reid: can you tell me where you do your grocery shopping?
There is much less competition here in the retail grocery market than in other major centres. Loblaws/Metro control a vast chunk of the market, in other places there more options, bringing prices down.
Specialty stores like LaPointe have good stuff but are considerably more expensive than a fresh fish retailer in, say, TO, again maybe due to market size and more competition.
I do agree that things have gotten tougher all over, but haven't been eating out in MTl or TO recently so can't comment on those, recession caused I think.
I know in Halifax (a pretty good eating-out town for its size), where I travel regularly things have gotten tight.
Lively discussion tho.

Just started a "New Closings 2014" thread. Rhyme and reason is found there.

Forum - New Closings 2014

Hungry Pete

It depends what i need if its just basics i go to Freshco/Loblaws/Metro/Giant Tiger if its more higher end items then its Farm Boy/T&t/Walmart/Cotsco/Sobeys.

@reidjr re "I understand people not happy with what some do offer but this idea things are cheaper i Toronto or Montreal is not really true."

Actually, i think that those cities, with their way larger populations and size, have commensurately more options, and therefore you can find cheaper easier.

I do eat out, in Mtl and TO regularly, and there are simply more options, more accessible, at a wider range of price points. Take sushi as a simple example... there are, to my unscientific observation, more sushi restaurants on Queen St in TO than in the whole of downtown Ottawa from Bronson and Catherine to the ass end of Sussex. Those restaus run the gamut from dirt cheap takeaway sushi counters to full blown high end sit down and break out the credit card fine dining. I want cheap fast sushi for lunch, there are ten places right there and ten more in the underground malls. I want cheap sushi in Ottawa, well, there's a food court in the World Ex and another in the Rideau centre, one on Queen st, Sushi Go on Sparks or Const Sq... ... all around the same price point and i know for a fact higher than TO because their competitors aren't right next door gunning for the same dollars.

So yah, cheaper.

As with sushi if you look at Toronto a large amount of them are downtown while in Ottawa its spread out for what ever reason as for cost i think its could be cheaper in part of the large Asian population but is everything cheaper no its not many things are close in price.

As my absence from Ottawa Foodies has indicated, I've been eating and drinking out less over the past 6 months by a drastic margin. Cerisepluot has echoed my sentiments word for word so I'll just repeat what s/he said:

"For this I could have bought us a ton of really great, high-end ingredients and cooked up a few feasts, with a couple bottles of decent wine thrown in. I just can't justify it these days unless 1) I'm pretty much guaranteed that it will be an excellent meal (I'm looking at you, Union 613) or 2) it is something I just wouldn't make at home."

I'm an avid supporter of small business and hate the thought of closings* but also can't help but feel that many restaurateurs have completely dropped the ball when it comes to providing value for money. I took someone out for a birthday lunch last month and ordered from a dessert menu without pricing only to discover that I'd paid $15 for a burger and $16 for dessert. In Britain they call that taking the p*ss and I can't help but feel that a number of establishments in Ottawa are now doing just that, most noticeably mid-range restaurants.

(*I'll further note that whenever I've tried to get a seat at Ottawa's favourite haunts (and we know which establishments those are) they continue to be solidly booked and I can't help but think it's because they offer great food, great service and great pricing, end of story. While it may be on a more infrequent basis, I nonetheless continue to patronize them because I always leave feeling good about the money I've spent there.)

Have you ever run into someone from Toronto and Montreal saying that things in Ottawa are cheaper than their respective cities? I have not come across such a conversation.

@reid - If you're shopping at Loblaws or Metro for basics, then you will never experience price savings in Toronto, Montreal or any other city for that matter. They are both reknowned for being overpriced, unless I'm missing something?

I echo the sentiments of many who feel that they are getting little value for their dining dollars. Seems like there is only fast food and excellent/fine dining available and very little in between. Too many mid-range restos offering cheap quality food for close to fine dining prices. Been to many restos recently and I can't even bother to give them another chance as the experience has been so underwhelming. Have not added a new member to my list of good, must re-visit restos in quite awhile. Case in point/minor rant: Why are so many mid and even fine dining restos charging exhorbitant prices for pork belly? Pork belly? It's the equivalent of charging $30 for a hamburger.

Boxers - If you eat at some of Ottawa's "better" restaurants ie. Wellington Gastropub, Supply and Demand, Allium, etc and then go eat at some of Montreal's "better" restaurants ie, Joe Beef, Pied du Cochon, Le Bremner, Maison Publique, etc you will notice that prices in Ottawa are DRASTICALLY cheaper. I've noticed, my friends have noticed it and people we know in Montreal constantly comment on how much cheaper it is here in Ottawa. I don't know about the comparison between lower end food, or pub food or mid range but I do know that in our top restaurants it is a lot cheaper here in Ottawa.

MMike - you make an interesting point re the higher end of the scale.
I do think your specific examples for Mtl are one notch higher (or perhaps 'finer') on the fine dining scale than the Ottawa examples. Joe Beef is, by example, higher end than the same owners' Mechant Bouef, which is comparable to the Ottawa restaus you raise.

I think we need to establish some parameters as to what constitutes 'better', upscale, fine dining etc. We might be talking apples and oranges.
For me high end Ottawa (feel free to disagree, because I haven't been to all these, I'm going on reputation, opinion and heresay)) are places like Atelier, 18, Domus, Social, and a bit more casual, Oz, Fraser Cafe, Back Lane, like that.

Some Toronto restaurants are getting better at trying not to charge out the ass for food. I went to bar isabel a couple weeks ago and it was amazing!!! and not crazy expensive. cocktails still expensive...that is where they get you, most restaurants try and make good profit off their bar.

FIFY....

""most restaurants make and absurdly stoopid profit off their bar drinks.""

I eat out less in the winter.

But also noticed that for the past "million years" people are always going on about cutbacks, recession,job loss and I think people will just keep on saying that...

Also that there is a lot of crappy chain places in Ottawa and not too much that is good and open late it seems.

My main reason for not eating out this past couple months is some stomach issues. I can't have anything with seasoning and only plain vegetables, rice crackers, a few nuts.
it is terribly dull to eat only that...

Since the budget is basically balanced now, the government cuts are over.

I see what you did there.